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Impact of Initialized Land Surface Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project, Phase i (LS4P-I): Organization and experimental design
Author
Xue, Y.Yao, T.
Boone, A.A.
Diallo, I.
Liu, Y.
Zeng, X.
Lau, W.K.M.
Sugimoto, S.
Tang, Q.
Pan, X.
Van Oevelen, P.J.
Klocke, D.
Koo, M.-S.
Sato, T.
Lin, Z.
Takaya, Y.
Ardilouze, C.
Materia, S.
Saha, S.K.
Senan, R.
Nakamura, T.
Wang, H.
Yang, J.
Zhang, H.
Zhao, M.
Liang, X.-Z.
Neelin, J.D.
Vitart, F.
Li, X.
Zhao, P.
Shi, C.
Guo, W.
Tang, J.
Yu, M.
Qian, Y.
Shen, S.S.P.
Zhang, Y.
Yang, K.
Leung, R.
Qiu, Y.
Peano, D.
Qi, X.
Zhan, Y.
Brunke, M.A.
Chou, S.C.
Ek, M.
Fan, T.
Guan, H.
Lin, H.
Liang, S.
Wei, H.
Xie, S.
Xu, H.
Li, W.
Shi, X.
Nobre, P.
Pan, Y.
Qin, Y.
Dozier, J.
Ferguson, C.R.
Balsamo, G.
Bao, Q.
Feng, J.
Hong, J.
Hong, S.
Huang, H.
Ji, D.
Ji, Z.
Kang, S.
Lin, Y.
Liu, W.
Muncaster, R.
De Rosnay, P.
Takahashi, H.G.
Wang, G.
Wang, S.
Wang, W.
Zhou, X.
Zhu, Y.
Affiliation
University of ArizonaIssue Date
2021
Metadata
Show full item recordPublisher
Copernicus GmbHCitation
Xue, Y., Yao, T., Boone, A. A., Diallo, I., Liu, Y., Zeng, X., Lau, W. K. M., Sugimoto, S., Tang, Q., Pan, X., Van Oevelen, P. J., Klocke, D., Koo, M.-S., Sato, T., Lin, Z., Takaya, Y., Ardilouze, C., Materia, S., Saha, S. K., … Zhu, Y. (2021). Impact of Initialized Land Surface Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project, Phase i (LS4P-I): Organization and experimental design. Geoscientific Model Development, 14(7), 4465–4494.Journal
Geoscientific Model DevelopmentRights
Copyright © Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.Collection Information
This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.Abstract
Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction, especially the prediction of extreme hydroclimate events such as droughts and floods, is not only scientifically challenging, but also has substantial societal impacts. Motivated by preliminary studies, the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX)/Global Atmospheric System Study (GASS) has launched a new initiative called "Impact of Initialized Land Surface Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction"(LS4P) as the first international grass-roots effort to introduce spring land surface temperature (LST)/subsurface temperature (SUBT) anomalies over high mountain areas as a crucial factor that can lead to significant improvement in precipitation prediction through the remote effects of land-atmosphere interactions. LS4P focuses on process understanding and predictability, and hence it is different from, and complements, other international projects that focus on the operational S2S prediction. More than 40 groups worldwide have participated in this effort, including 21 Earth system models, 9 regional climate models, and 7 data groups. This paper provides an overview of the history and objectives of LS4P, provides the first-phase experimental protocol (LS4P-I) which focuses on the remote effect of the Tibetan Plateau, discusses the LST/SUBT initialization, and presents the preliminary results. Multi-model ensemble experiments and analyses of observational data have revealed that the hydroclimatic effect of the spring LST on the Tibetan Plateau is not limited to the Yangtze River basin but may have a significant large-scale impact on summer precipitation beyond East Asia and its S2S prediction. Preliminary studies and analysis have also shown that LS4P models are unable to preserve the initialized LST anomalies in producing the observed anomalies largely for two main reasons: (i) inadequacies in the land models arising from total soil depths which are too shallow and the use of simplified parameterizations, which both tend to limit the soil memory; (ii) reanalysis data, which are used for initial conditions, have large discrepancies from the observed mean state and anomalies of LST over the Tibetan Plateau. Innovative approaches have been developed to largely overcome these problems. © 2021 Yongkang Xue et al.Note
Open access journalISSN
1991-959XVersion
Final published versionae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
10.5194/gmd-14-4465-2021
Scopus Count
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Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Copyright © Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.