Rank extrapolation: Asymmetric forecasts of future rank after rank change
Name:
Pettit, Doyle, Kim & Hurwitz_Rank ...
Embargo:
2025-02-08
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709.6Kb
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Final Accepted Manuscript
Affiliation
Department of Management and Organizations, Eller College of Management, University of ArizonaIssue Date
2022-03
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Elsevier BVCitation
Pettit, N. C., Doyle, S. P., Kim, H. Y., & Hurwitz, A. (2022). Rank extrapolation: Asymmetric forecasts of future rank after rank change. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes.Rights
© 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.Collection Information
This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.Abstract
How do people forecast an actor's future rank after observing a rank change and what are the factors that shape these forecasts? In this research, we shed new light on the attributions that people make when they observe an actor change rank and on how these attributions explain where people expect the actor to rank in the future. Specifically, in Studies 1a and 1b we document an asymmetric extrapolation bias, whereby people extrapolate upward rank trajectories more steeply into the future than downward trajectories – a pattern of results that differ in both magnitude and direction from actual rank change patterns over time. In Studies 2 and 3 we provide evidence of the different attributions that explain people's asymmetric extrapolation through measurement and manipulation. Finally, in Study 4 we demonstrate a practical downstream consequence of this asymmetric extrapolation bias (i.e., promotion recommendation) (Study 4). Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.Note
36 month embargo; available online: 8 February 2022ISSN
0749-5978Version
Final accepted manuscriptae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
10.1016/j.obhdp.2022.104129