Surging Underdogs and Slumping Favorites: How Recent Streaks and Future Expectations Drive Competitive Transgressions

Abstract

Any single competition is rarely a “one-off” event, and instead is often part of a larger sequence of related competitions. Thus, we contend that, in order to better understand people’s competitive experience, we must take a more holistic view where their experience and behavior in the present is a function of their past and expected future outcomes. This research expands the temporal lens of competition by examining how past outcomes (i.e., winning vs. losing streak) and future expectations (i.e., underdog vs. favorite standing) collectively influence an actor’s cognitive and affective reactions to a competition, with implications for their willingness to transgress. Studies 1 (Fantasy Football managers) and 2 (the English Premiere League teams) show that streaks and underdog vs. favorite standing interact to predict competitive transgressions: winning streaks increase transgressions for underdogs, and losing streaks increase transgressions for favorites. Studies 3 (public defenders) and 4 (Democrats and Republicans) experimentally manipulate streaks and standing and unpack the cognitive (i.e., outcome uncertainty) and affective (i.e., excitement for underdogs, anxiety for favorites) mechanisms that precipitate these transgressions. Theoretical implications for the competition literature, as well as managerial insights, are discussed.