Investigating Vulnerable Populations Inhabiting Sea Level Rise Resilient Geography in Miami, FL

Abstract

Sea level rise (SLR) in Miami demands attention from policymakers to consider environmental benefits such as higher elevation as potential disadvantages when possessed by vulnerable populations. Without examining higher elevation landscapes, certain demographic features within historically segregated neighborhoods risk unfair exposure to climate gentrification. To find communities most affected by SLR per select neighborhood and census tract, ArcGIS Pro was used to create bathtub models from USGS digital elevation models, and polygons containing American Community Survey census data, which were spatially joined to illustrate those affected by SLR per half meter interval. Finding that while three of the four contemporary neighborhoods retain predominate racial and ethnic character of each respective historical community, 25.6% of the total population were in poverty, and 2.8% were 85 and older. Little Havana (92.8% Hispanic & Latino) was most affected by SLR in area and by population count. The area lost per census tract across all SLR intervals ranged from 0% - 96%, with the most resilient census tract found in Little Haiti with < 1.5% area lost at 3.0 m of SLR. This study elucidates the demographic details of higher elevation locations possessing varying degrees of resilience but that are at risk to climate gentrification.