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dc.contributor.authorCramer, Estee Y
dc.contributor.authorRay, Evan L
dc.contributor.authorLopez, Velma K
dc.contributor.authorBracher, Johannes
dc.contributor.authorBrennen, Andrea
dc.contributor.authorCastro Rivadeneira, Alvaro J
dc.contributor.authorGerding, Aaron
dc.contributor.authorGneiting, Tilmann
dc.contributor.authorHouse, Katie H
dc.contributor.authorHuang, Yuxin
dc.contributor.authorJayawardena, Dasuni
dc.contributor.authorKanji, Abdul H
dc.contributor.authorKhandelwal, Ayush
dc.contributor.authorLe, Khoa
dc.contributor.authorMühlemann, Anja
dc.contributor.authorNiemi, Jarad
dc.contributor.authorShah, Apurv
dc.contributor.authorStark, Ariane
dc.contributor.authorWang, Yijin
dc.contributor.authorWattanachit, Nutcha
dc.contributor.authorZorn, Martha W
dc.contributor.authorGu, Youyang
dc.contributor.authorJain, Sansiddh
dc.contributor.authorBannur, Nayana
dc.contributor.authorDeva, Ayush
dc.contributor.authorKulkarni, Mihir
dc.contributor.authorMerugu, Srujana
dc.contributor.authorRaval, Alpan
dc.contributor.authorShingi, Siddhant
dc.contributor.authorTiwari, Avtansh
dc.contributor.authorWhite, Jerome
dc.contributor.authorAbernethy, Neil F
dc.contributor.authorWoody, Spencer
dc.contributor.authorDahan, Maytal
dc.contributor.authorFox, Spencer
dc.contributor.authorGaither, Kelly
dc.contributor.authorLachmann, Michael
dc.contributor.authorMeyers, Lauren Ancel
dc.contributor.authorScott, James G
dc.contributor.authorTec, Mauricio
dc.contributor.authorSrivastava, Ajitesh
dc.contributor.authorGeorge, Glover E
dc.contributor.authorCegan, Jeffrey C
dc.contributor.authorDettwiller, Ian D
dc.contributor.authorEngland, William P
dc.contributor.authorFarthing, Matthew W
dc.contributor.authorHunter, Robert H
dc.contributor.authorLafferty, Brandon
dc.contributor.authorLinkov, Igor
dc.contributor.authorMayo, Michael L
dc.contributor.authorParno, Matthew D
dc.contributor.authorRowland, Michael A
dc.contributor.authorTrump, Benjamin D
dc.contributor.authorZhang-James, Yanli
dc.contributor.authorChen, Samuel
dc.contributor.authorFaraone, Stephen V
dc.contributor.authorHess, Jonathan
dc.contributor.authorMorley, Christopher P
dc.contributor.authorSalekin, Asif
dc.contributor.authorWang, Dongliang
dc.contributor.authorCorsetti, Sabrina M
dc.contributor.authorBaer, Thomas M
dc.contributor.authorEisenberg, Marisa C
dc.contributor.authorFalb, Karl
dc.contributor.authorHuang, Yitao
dc.contributor.authorMartin, Emily T
dc.contributor.authorMcCauley, Ella
dc.contributor.authorMyers, Robert L
dc.contributor.authorSchwarz, Tom
dc.contributor.authorSheldon, Daniel
dc.contributor.authorGibson, Graham Casey
dc.contributor.authorYu, Rose
dc.contributor.authorGao, Liyao
dc.contributor.authorMa, Yian
dc.contributor.authorWu, Dongxia
dc.contributor.authorYan, Xifeng
dc.contributor.authorJin, Xiaoyong
dc.contributor.authorWang, Yu-Xiang
dc.contributor.authorChen, YangQuan
dc.contributor.authorGuo, Lihong
dc.contributor.authorZhao, Yanting
dc.contributor.authorGu, Quanquan
dc.contributor.authorChen, Jinghui
dc.contributor.authorWang, Lingxiao
dc.contributor.authorXu, Pan
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Weitong
dc.contributor.authorZou, Difan
dc.contributor.authorBiegel, Hannah
dc.contributor.authorLega, Joceline
dc.contributor.authorMcConnell, Steve
dc.contributor.authorNagraj, V P
dc.contributor.authorGuertin, Stephanie L
dc.contributor.authorHulme-Lowe, Christopher
dc.contributor.authorTurner, Stephen D
dc.contributor.authorShi, Yunfeng
dc.contributor.authorBan, Xuegang
dc.contributor.authorWalraven, Robert
dc.contributor.authorHong, Qi-Jun
dc.contributor.authorKong, Stanley
dc.contributor.authorvan de Walle, Axel
dc.contributor.authorTurtle, James A
dc.contributor.authorBen-Nun, Michal
dc.contributor.authorRiley, Steven
dc.contributor.authorRiley, Pete
dc.contributor.authorKoyluoglu, Ugur
dc.contributor.authorDesRoches, David
dc.contributor.authorForli, Pedro
dc.contributor.authorHamory, Bruce
dc.contributor.authorKyriakides, Christina
dc.contributor.authorLeis, Helen
dc.contributor.authorMilliken, John
dc.contributor.authorMoloney, Michael
dc.contributor.authorMorgan, James
dc.contributor.authorNirgudkar, Ninad
dc.contributor.authorOzcan, Gokce
dc.contributor.authorPiwonka, Noah
dc.contributor.authorRavi, Matt
dc.contributor.authorSchrader, Chris
dc.contributor.authorShakhnovich, Elizabeth
dc.contributor.authorSiegel, Daniel
dc.contributor.authorSpatz, Ryan
dc.contributor.authorStiefeling, Chris
dc.contributor.authorWilkinson, Barrie
dc.contributor.authorWong, Alexander
dc.contributor.authorCavany, Sean
dc.contributor.authorEspaña, Guido
dc.contributor.authorMoore, Sean
dc.contributor.authorOidtman, Rachel
dc.contributor.authorPerkins, Alex
dc.contributor.authorKraus, David
dc.contributor.authorKraus, Andrea
dc.contributor.authorGao, Zhifeng
dc.contributor.authorBian, Jiang
dc.contributor.authorCao, Wei
dc.contributor.authorLavista Ferres, Juan
dc.contributor.authorLi, Chaozhuo
dc.contributor.authorLiu, Tie-Yan
dc.contributor.authorXie, Xing
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Shun
dc.contributor.authorZheng, Shun
dc.contributor.authorVespignani, Alessandro
dc.contributor.authorChinazzi, Matteo
dc.contributor.authorDavis, Jessica T
dc.contributor.authorMu, Kunpeng
dc.contributor.authorPastore Y Piontti, Ana
dc.contributor.authorXiong, Xinyue
dc.contributor.authorZheng, Andrew
dc.contributor.authorBaek, Jackie
dc.contributor.authorFarias, Vivek
dc.contributor.authorGeorgescu, Andreea
dc.contributor.authorLevi, Retsef
dc.contributor.authorSinha, Deeksha
dc.contributor.authorWilde, Joshua
dc.contributor.authorPerakis, Georgia
dc.contributor.authorBennouna, Mohammed Amine
dc.contributor.authorNze-Ndong, David
dc.contributor.authorSinghvi, Divya
dc.contributor.authorSpantidakis, Ioannis
dc.contributor.authorThayaparan, Leann
dc.contributor.authorTsiourvas, Asterios
dc.contributor.authorSarker, Arnab
dc.contributor.authorJadbabaie, Ali
dc.contributor.authorShah, Devavrat
dc.contributor.authorDella Penna, Nicolas
dc.contributor.authorCeli, Leo A
dc.contributor.authorSundar, Saketh
dc.contributor.authorWolfinger, Russ
dc.contributor.authorOsthus, Dave
dc.contributor.authorCastro, Lauren
dc.contributor.authorFairchild, Geoffrey
dc.contributor.authorMichaud, Isaac
dc.contributor.authorKarlen, Dean
dc.contributor.authorKinsey, Matt
dc.contributor.authorMullany, Luke C
dc.contributor.authorRainwater-Lovett, Kaitlin
dc.contributor.authorShin, Lauren
dc.contributor.authorTallaksen, Katharine
dc.contributor.authorWilson, Shelby
dc.contributor.authorLee, Elizabeth C
dc.contributor.authorDent, Juan
dc.contributor.authorGrantz, Kyra H
dc.contributor.authorHill, Alison L
dc.contributor.authorKaminsky, Joshua
dc.contributor.authorKaminsky, Kathryn
dc.contributor.authorKeegan, Lindsay T
dc.contributor.authorLauer, Stephen A
dc.contributor.authorLemaitre, Joseph C
dc.contributor.authorLessler, Justin
dc.contributor.authorMeredith, Hannah R
dc.contributor.authorPerez-Saez, Javier
dc.contributor.authorShah, Sam
dc.contributor.authorSmith, Claire P
dc.contributor.authorTruelove, Shaun A
dc.contributor.authorWills, Josh
dc.contributor.authorMarshall, Maximilian
dc.contributor.authorGardner, Lauren
dc.contributor.authorNixon, Kristen
dc.contributor.authorBurant, John C
dc.contributor.authorWang, Lily
dc.contributor.authorGao, Lei
dc.contributor.authorGu, Zhiling
dc.contributor.authorKim, Myungjin
dc.contributor.authorLi, Xinyi
dc.contributor.authorWang, Guannan
dc.contributor.authorWang, Yueying
dc.contributor.authorYu, Shan
dc.contributor.authorReiner, Robert C
dc.contributor.authorBarber, Ryan
dc.contributor.authorGakidou, Emmanuela
dc.contributor.authorHay, Simon I
dc.contributor.authorLim, Steve
dc.contributor.authorMurray, Chris
dc.contributor.authorPigott, David
dc.contributor.authorGurung, Heidi L
dc.contributor.authorBaccam, Prasith
dc.contributor.authorStage, Steven A
dc.contributor.authorSuchoski, Bradley T
dc.contributor.authorPrakash, B Aditya
dc.contributor.authorAdhikari, Bijaya
dc.contributor.authorCui, Jiaming
dc.contributor.authorRodríguez, Alexander
dc.contributor.authorTabassum, Anika
dc.contributor.authorXie, Jiajia
dc.contributor.authorKeskinocak, Pinar
dc.contributor.authorAsplund, John
dc.contributor.authorBaxter, Arden
dc.contributor.authorOruc, Buse Eylul
dc.contributor.authorSerban, Nicoleta
dc.contributor.authorArik, Sercan O
dc.contributor.authorDusenberry, Mike
dc.contributor.authorEpshteyn, Arkady
dc.contributor.authorKanal, Elli
dc.contributor.authorLe, Long T
dc.contributor.authorLi, Chun-Liang
dc.contributor.authorPfister, Tomas
dc.contributor.authorSava, Dario
dc.contributor.authorSinha, Rajarishi
dc.contributor.authorTsai, Thomas
dc.contributor.authorYoder, Nate
dc.contributor.authorYoon, Jinsung
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Leyou
dc.contributor.authorAbbott, Sam
dc.contributor.authorBosse, Nikos I
dc.contributor.authorFunk, Sebastian
dc.contributor.authorHellewell, Joel
dc.contributor.authorMeakin, Sophie R
dc.contributor.authorSherratt, Katharine
dc.contributor.authorZhou, Mingyuan
dc.contributor.authorKalantari, Rahi
dc.contributor.authorYamana, Teresa K
dc.contributor.authorPei, Sen
dc.contributor.authorShaman, Jeffrey
dc.contributor.authorLi, Michael L
dc.contributor.authorBertsimas, Dimitris
dc.contributor.authorSkali Lami, Omar
dc.contributor.authorSoni, Saksham
dc.contributor.authorTazi Bouardi, Hamza
dc.contributor.authorAyer, Turgay
dc.contributor.authorAdee, Madeline
dc.contributor.authorChhatwal, Jagpreet
dc.contributor.authorDalgic, Ozden O
dc.contributor.authorLadd, Mary A
dc.contributor.authorLinas, Benjamin P
dc.contributor.authorMueller, Peter
dc.contributor.authorXiao, Jade
dc.contributor.authorWang, Yuanjia
dc.contributor.authorWang, Qinxia
dc.contributor.authorXie, Shanghong
dc.contributor.authorZeng, Donglin
dc.contributor.authorGreen, Alden
dc.contributor.authorBien, Jacob
dc.contributor.authorBrooks, Logan
dc.contributor.authorHu, Addison J
dc.contributor.authorJahja, Maria
dc.contributor.authorMcDonald, Daniel
dc.contributor.authorNarasimhan, Balasubramanian
dc.contributor.authorPolitsch, Collin
dc.contributor.authorRajanala, Samyak
dc.contributor.authorRumack, Aaron
dc.contributor.authorSimon, Noah
dc.contributor.authorTibshirani, Ryan J
dc.contributor.authorTibshirani, Rob
dc.contributor.authorVentura, Valerie
dc.contributor.authorWasserman, Larry
dc.contributor.authorO'Dea, Eamon B
dc.contributor.authorDrake, John M
dc.contributor.authorPagano, Robert
dc.contributor.authorTran, Quoc T
dc.contributor.authorHo, Lam Si Tung
dc.contributor.authorHuynh, Huong
dc.contributor.authorWalker, Jo W
dc.contributor.authorSlayton, Rachel B
dc.contributor.authorJohansson, Michael A
dc.contributor.authorBiggerstaff, Matthew
dc.contributor.authorReich, Nicholas G
dc.date.accessioned2022-05-13T21:24:20Z
dc.date.available2022-05-13T21:24:20Z
dc.date.issued2022-04-08
dc.identifier.citationCramer, E. Y., Ray, E. L., Lopez, V. K., Bracher, J., Brennen, A., Castro Rivadeneira, A. J., Gerding, A., Gneiting, T., House, K. H., Huang, Y., Jayawardena, D., Kanji, A. H., Khandelwal, A., Le, K., Mühlemann, A., Niemi, J., Shah, A., Stark, A., Wang, Y., … Reich, N. G. (2022). Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.en_US
dc.identifier.pmid35394862
dc.identifier.doi10.1073/pnas.2113561119
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10150/664210
dc.description.abstractSignificance: This paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public-health action.en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherNational Academy of Sciencesen_US
dc.rightsCopyright © 2022 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY).en_US
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en_US
dc.subjectCOVID-19en_US
dc.subjectensemble forecasten_US
dc.subjectforecastingen_US
dc.subjectmodel evaluationen_US
dc.titleEvaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United Statesen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.eissn1091-6490
dc.contributor.departmentDepartment of Mathematics, University of Arizonaen_US
dc.identifier.journalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of Americaen_US
dc.description.noteOpen access articleen_US
dc.description.collectioninformationThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.en_US
dc.eprint.versionFinal published versionen_US
dc.source.journaltitleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
dc.source.volume119
dc.source.issue15
dc.source.beginpagee2113561119
dc.source.endpage
refterms.dateFOA2022-05-13T21:24:20Z
dc.source.countryUnited States
dc.source.countryUnited States


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Copyright © 2022 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY).
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Copyright © 2022 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY).