FROM PROTESTS TO VIOLENCE: AN ASSESSMENT OF PROTESTS IN ALGERIA IN 1988 AND 2011

Abstract

In 1988, Algeria experienced the first protests that would later lead to the start of their civil war in 1992. What started off as peaceful demonstrations turned violent when the government used heavy-handed force to break up the protests. Between the violence, the failed economy that sparked the protests in the first place, and public support for Islamist groups, violence and terrorism quickly rose and remained at high levels throughout the civil war. Less than a decade after the end of the war in 2002, the Arab Spring protests reached Algeria in 2011. The government also responded to these protests with heavy force, but the 2011 protests didn’t result in continual violence or terrorism like in 1988, even though the reasons behind the protests and the government responses were similar. In this paper, the 1988 and 2011 protests will be analyzed through the lens of the opportunity, willingness, and precipitant framework that looks at why terrorism occurs in order to help explain the contrasting results of two seemingly similar rounds of protests. After looking at these two sets of protests through this lens, the protests in 1988 turned violent and the 2011 protests didn’t because the heavy-handed military response in 1988 wasn’t as effective as that in 2011, and in 1988 there was a strong willingness to both form terrorist groups and support these groups that no longer existed in 2011.