Managing Uncertainty in Collaborative Governance: Multi-Method Evidence

Abstract

Scholars have recognized the importance of uncertainty as institutional context in collaborative water management, but the relationship between uncertainty and collaborative performance is mixed. On the one hand, increased uncertainty will positively enhance the performance of collaborative governance through new ties and innovations. On the other hand, certain types of uncertainties are negatively associated with collaborative performance. To understand the puzzle of uncertainty and collaborative performance, I take the problem of groundwater management for theory development and empirical testing. Aquifers are being depleted faster than they can recharge, leaving municipalities, irrigators, and ranchers vulnerable to ever-reducing water availability over time, but the management of groundwater problems is wicked because it involves complex social, ecological, scientific, administrative, and political issues. The effectiveness of collaborative governance depends in large part on the way in which stakeholders perceive, interpret, and use uncertain information.This dissertation fills the theoretical and empirical gap by using multi method research design. The first research question is: What are the nature and characteristics of uncertainty in collaborative governance? This question is addressed based on the in-depth case study of Upper San Pedro Watershed Partnership in Arizona, U.S. Based on the various sources of empirical data, including 22 in-depth interviews, policy reports, and local news articles, conceptual typology and theoretical propositions are proposed to develop theories of collaborative governance under uncertainties. Results suggest that scientific and managerial uncertainty are significant and tend to have negative effects on the performance of groundwater management, but the relationship between uncertainty and collaborative performance can be positively or negatively moderated by the quality of relation management including integrative leadership and cohesion building between participants. Results also suggest that levels and sources of uncertainty tend to change as collaboration evolves and thus the relationship between uncertainty and performance may shift over time. Having recognized that understanding scientific uncertainty is important in groundwater management based on the case study, this dissertation asks two questions: How and to what extent does scientific uncertainty affect collaborative performance? Do collaborative management tools have an impact on different types of collaborative outcomes, particularly under the condition of scientific uncertainty? This dissertation modified a groundwater game experiment where groups of 4-5 participants play a crop choice game for multiple rounds as resource users (Meinzen-Dick et al. 2016). The goal of this game for each participant is to grow as many profitable crops as possible under conditions where all users share groundwater resources with limited ability to recharge. But unlike the original game, where participants had full information about recharge rate, two treatments are introduced about scientific uncertainty in water recharge: uncertainty operationalized as a range of values (Treatment 1) and uncertainty operationalized as competing hydrological models (Treatment 2). Using quantitative and qualitative game experimental data from 30 groups, results suggest that more uncertain information tends to reduce individual earnings and thus increase shared resources. A range of uncertain information has a more significant impact on resource behavior than competing information. Finally, post-experimental analysis shows that diverse collaboration strategies tend to reduce distributional inequity among game participants. This dissertation contributes to the literature of collaborative governance and collective action by explicitly theorizing and modelling the relationship between uncertainty, collaboration process, and performance.