RECREATIONAL TRAILS IN OLYMPIC NATIONAL PARK THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE NEXT CENTURY

Abstract

Olympic National Park covers nearly 1 million acres of the eponymous peninsula in Washington State with over 600 miles of maintained trails across diverse ecosystems. Recreational activities using the trails found in Olympic National Park are enjoyed by 2.4 million people every year. Olympic National Park has designated addressing climate change, which refers to long-term shifts in temperature and weather patterns, as a priority for the National Park in the next century. Climate changes in the park are projected to result in a variety of hydrological changes, such as decreased snow residence times and an increase in flood frequency and magnitude, in addition to extreme and unseasonable weather patterns. Regardless, there is no scientific literature studying the effects of climate change on recreational trails in Olympic National Park and the weather pattern changes that would have the highest levels of impact and what those levels would be. Data from the National Ocean and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), the National Park Service, the Forest Service and NASA helped paint a picture of five specific climate change scenarios: temperatures, flooding, precipitation levels, snowmelt, and sea level rise. Using the highest projections, with a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) of 8.5, it was found that a majority of the 201 recreational trails in Olympic National Park will be impacted by either one or more of the stated climate change scenarios in the next century.