The NEO Surveyor Near-Earth Asteroid Known Object Model

Abstract

The known near-Earth object (NEO) population consists of over 32,000 objects, with a yearly discovery rate of over 3000 NEOs per year. An essential component of the next generation of NEO surveys is an understanding of the population of known objects, including an accounting of the discovery rate per year as a function of size. Using a near-Earth asteroid (NEA) reference model developed for NASA’s NEO Surveyor (NEOS) mission and a model of the major current and historical ground-based surveys, an estimate of the current NEA survey completeness as a function of size and absolute magnitude has been determined (termed the Known Object Model; KOM). This allows for understanding of the intersection of the known catalog of NEAs and the objects expected to be observed by NEOS. The current NEA population is found to be ∼38% complete for objects larger than 140 m, consistent with estimates by Harris & Chodas. NEOS is expected to catalog more than two-thirds of the NEAs larger than 140 m, resulting in ∼76% of NEAs cataloged at the end of its 5 yr nominal survey, making significant progress toward the US Congressional mandate. The KOM estimates that ∼77% of the currently cataloged objects will be detected by NEOS, with those not detected contributing ∼9% to the final completeness at the end of its 5 yr mission. This model allows for placing the NEOS mission in the context of current surveys to more completely assess the progress toward the goal of cataloging the population of hazardous asteroids. © 2023. The Author(s). Published by the American Astronomical Society.