THE FUTURE OF THE SOUTHWEST LIGHT RAIL TRANSIT PROJECT: PREDICTING CRIME WITH SPATIAL ANALYSIS

Abstract

Metro Transit is the main public transportation network in Minneapolis and St. Paul. The transportation network is comprised of light rail, buses, and commuter trains. The light rail network is comprised of two lines: the METRO Green Line and METRO Blue Line. The Southwest Light Rail Transit project is going to extend the METRO Green Line 14.5 miles to connect downtown St. Paul to downtown Minneapolis and surrounding locations. Residents have voiced concerns that the extension will bring crime to their neighborhoods because there is a perception that there is a higher amount of crime near light rail stations and platforms. The study examines crimes in Minneapolis and St. Paul from the years 2019 through 2023. Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis is utilized to produce a kernel density map of total crimes throughout each city. Visually, the kernel density map shows that there are crime hotspots in downtown St. Paul and downtown Minneapolis. A buffer analysis was also conducted by creating a buffer around each light rail station or stop along both Blue and Green Lines to calculate the number of crimes per 0.25 mile. The stations with the highest crimes per 0.25 mile were all located in downtown St. Paul and Minneapolis. Population density for each neighborhood was used to help determine the rate of future crime at the five new stations in Minneapolis. Light rail stations and stops are found to have higher crime at their downtown locations compared to other locations in the cities.