HABITAT SUITABILITY ANALYSIS OF IXODES SCAPULARIS IN THE STATE OF MICHIGAN TO DETERMINE LYME DISEASE RISK

Abstract

Lyme disease is the most common vector-borne disease in the United States. The disease is caused by the bacteria Borrelia burgdorferi and is largely spread by the black-legged tick, Ixodes scapularis. The black-legged tick, also known as the deer tick, is most common in the Northeast, mid-Atlantic, and upper Midwest. A weighted habitat suitability analysis submodel based on environmental factors was conducted to determine locations in the state of Michigan where deer ticks may exist or could become established if introduced. The results from this submodel were then used as part of a second weighted suitability analysis which also incorporated certain human activities that increase the likelihood of encountering deer ticks. A risk map was generated from the second suitability analysis to display areas that are both highly suitable for tick survival and human activity. The risk map showed a majority of the upper peninsula and northern lower peninsula, along with the west coast and portions of the southeast region, posing a risk to humans should a tick population become established if not established currently. Further studies should be conducted that incorporate tick surveillance programs, Lyme disease incidence rates, and human behavior in and around these higher risk areas to limit the spread of future tick populations and bring awareness to Michigan residents.