POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF METHANE EMISSION REDUCTION ON CALIFORNIA LEAST TERN BREEDING HABITAT

Abstract

Effective climate change mitigation is complicated by economic factors, as renewable energy projects require significant upfront investment. Recently, the Bitcoin mining industry has begun investing in renewable energy, particularly projects powered by methane waste byproducts from other industries. These projects are promising for their low infrastructure needs and ability to reduce methane emissions that would otherwise be released into the atmosphere. Programs like the Endangered Species Act’s Cooperative Endangered Species Conservation Fund provide funding for conservation projects benefiting endangered species. These programs could support methane-fueled Bitcoin mining projects if a link between methane reduction and improved habitat for endangered species is established. This study used GIS to assess the impact of methane reduction on the breeding habitat of the California least tern, an endangered bird species. Using data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate modeling project, potential future habitat in 2050 was mapped under three projected climate scenarios developed by CMIP6 scientists. Alternative scenarios with 10%, 20%, and 50% reductions in methane emissions were then modeled using the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC) climate model for comparison with the unaltered versions. In two of the three scenarios, reducing methane emissions expanded the likely breeding habitat of the California least tern. However, in the third scenario, habitat suitability showed minimal change. This suggests that methane-fueled Bitcoin mining could be an effective climate change mitigation strategy, potentially improving habitat for endangered species, but further research is needed to confirm these findings.