Not in Kansas Anymore: Analyzing the Shift of Tornadoes in the United States

Abstract

Tornadoes are a potential threat to life no matter how much one prepares. Many people in high-risk areas can become desensitized to this threat, but tornadoes are significant everywhere and can occur with zero notice. These high-risk areas rely on infrastructure and resource management to best deal with the consequences of tornadoes. Identifying the areas at high risk of tornadoes can better equip officials with the knowledge to aid residents with recovery more efficiently. Geographic Information Systems can be utilized to leverage historical data to identify these high-risk areas and predict which areas will see an increase in frequency and intensity based on future weather pattern predictions. To accomplish this task, a suitability analysis model is appropriate with an accompanying time series map that highlights how tornadoes have shifted geographically over time. This is centralized into three study areas: The Great Plains, Tornado Alley, and Dixie Alley. The results show which general study area has increased in intensity, as determined by the Enhanced Fujita Scale and overall frequency. Ultimately, tornadoes have shifted in frequency from the Great Plains and historical Tornado Alley to Dixie Alley, but everywhere has increased in intensity, with the past five years showing an increase in violent tornadoes.