Investigating Trends, Causes, and Patterns of Idaho Wildfires

Abstract

Wildfires have become increasingly more common in much of the West, posing a large threat to both human and natural resources. This study uses a variety of spatial statistical methods to investigate the patterns, trends, and causes of wildfires across the state of Idaho. Leveraging tools such as the Global Moran’s I and Hot Spot Analysis to identify significant clusters and emerging trends of fire patterns, Standard Deviational Ellipses were also employed to show the dispersion and orientation of wildfire occurrences. Regression analysis, including ordinary least squares (OLS) and geographically weighted regression (GWR), was used to examine how fire management practices influence the spatial patterns of wildfire incident sizes. The results indicate that human and natural-caused fires exhibit reverse patterns: human-caused fires tend to be smaller but more costly, whereas natural-caused fires tend to be larger but less costly. Unsurprisingly, human fires tend to be concentrated around higher population densities, while natural fires tend to occur in more remote areas. These findings highlight the importance of more localized and data-driven approaches to wildfire management and policy decision-making.