The Effect of Wildfire Agency Differences on the Size and Duration of Wildfire in Northern California

Abstract

This thesis explores how institutional differences between wildfire suppression agencies impact the size and duration of wildfire in Northern California. Previous literature has discussed theoretical implications of how different wildfire suppression organizations, values at risk, and ownership of the fire shed impact wildfire. However these theories of wildfire economics have not been tested empirically. The United States Forest Service (USFS) acts as a land management agency; it owns the majority of the area it has been assigned to protect and can more or less dictates how the land is used. California’s state wildfire suppression agency, CALFIRE, on the other hand essentially acts as a rural fire department for its protection areas. CALFIRE owns very little of the area it is assigned to protect and essentially is a suppression only agency. In testing the impact of the differences between these agencies on wildfire size and duration, this thesis will attempt to empirically examine theoretical wildfire economics literature. An economic frame work is developed with predictions to test the extent that agency organization influences wildfire. A study of Northern California wildfire and the impact of institutional differences among wildfire agencies is conducted using wildfire data on over 30,000 wildfires from multiple sources spanning from 2001 to 2011. This data were then incorporated into a single dataset using GIS. Variables controlling all exogenous parameters of the fire shed such as elevation and vegetation are also included in the estimates. It is found that wildfire agency structures do indeed have an impact upon wildfire size and duration. The nature of the exact differences, such as what can be attributed to positioning of wildfire suppression resources or organization of suppression efforts is not made evident in this study.