The Potential Effects of Climate Change on Residential Water Demand in Phoenix, AZ

Abstract

Water is a vital component for the continued prosperity and growth of metropolitan Phoenix. Despite that, very little work has been done to examine how potential changes in weather patterns could affect water usage in the coming decades. Newly available data from meteorological agencies around the world on how temperature, precipitation, and other weather variables could evolve until 2100 makes looking at future water demand an area ripe for exploration. This is one of the first studies to look at water demand in Phoenix using both household level data and extrapolating the demand patterns from the regression of that data to look at different climate scenarios and how they could impact water usage. Panel data are used to model water demand. Then using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) data on climate variables in the coming century are used to estimate counterfactual water demands in four Phoenix Communities.