Quantifying Weekly Beef Production using Monthly Feeder Cattle Placements

Abstract

Beginning in December 1995, USDA/NASS started reporting monthly cattle-on-feed placements for four different weight groups, to provide information regarding future slaughter numbers and beef production. The focus of this thesis is to empirically quantify relationships between monthly placements of steers and heifers into the feedlot with weekly federally inspected fed beef slaughtered. Weight of feeders when placed in the feedlot, average daily gain, quality premiums, seasonality, and other factors are used to quantify relationships between feeder placements and slaughter numbers. A comparison of the forecasting accuracy of alternative seasonal adjustment approaches is carried out in this thesis to evaluate how to best capture seasonal effects on beef production. This study will improve understanding of the cattle feeding timeline and weight gain relationships between feedlot placements, economic incentives of cattle feeding, and federally inspected fed cattle.