Impacts of Climate Change on National Park Visitation and Local Economies in the US Southwest

Abstract

This study examines how climate affects recreational visits to national parks in the Southwest and how climate-induced changes in park visits affect spending, employment and personal incomes in local communities. A fixed effects vector decomposition (FEVD) regression method is used to estimate how climate affects annual visitation, controlling for other factors (such as park attributes, population, and gasoline prices). The study uses 25 years of visitation data for 42 sites in the national park system. The study combines the regression results with input-output modeling to examine how climate change affects local economies near parks. Results suggest that warmer July temperatures discourage visits. Warmer January temperatures increase visits, except in low desert parks with relatively high temperatures. The net effect of projected temperature increases is an increase in visits in Northern Arizona, Northern New Mexico, and Southern Utah, and a decrease in visits in the southern parts of Arizona, New Mexico, and California. As previous studies of climate change and outdoor recreation have found, the net economic benefits of warmer temperatures are estimated to be positive. However, results suggest that lower lake elevations and large fires (such as the Cerro Grande fire) can have significant negative impacts on visits. Thus, a complete assessment of climate change impacts on outdoor recreation would also account for changes in reservoir levels and the probability of large wildfire events.