Forecasting Weekly Beef Production using Monthly Feedlot Placements of Steers and Heifers

Abstract

Beginning in December 1995, USDA/NASS started reporting monthly cattleon-feed placements for four different weight groups, to provide information regarding future slaughter numbers and beef production. The focus of this thesis is to empirically quantify relationships between monthly placements of steers and heifers into the feedlot with weekly federally inspected fed beef slaughtered. Weight of feeders when placed in the feedlot, cost of gain, quality premiums, seasonality, and other factors are used to quantify relationships between feeder placements, slaughter numbers and average slaughter weights. Furthermore, a comparison of the forecasting accuracy of alternative seasonal adjustment approaches is carried out in this thesis to evaluate how to best capture seasonal phenomena. This study will improve understanding of the appropriate lag lengths and weight gain relationships between feedlot placements, economic incentives of cattle feeding, and federally inspected fed cattle marketings.