Scenarios for Upper Gila River Watershed

Abstract

Excerpt from the Introduction: The four scenarios presented here span the next 30 years, and demonstrate how the key drivers of change in the watershed are influenced and changed by the major uncertainties. These major uncertainties are the overarching themes for the four scenarios and include: New Mexico’s decision to divert water from the Gila and San Francisco Rivers; the tamarisk beetle; local versus federal control of the watershed; and fluctuation in cotton prices. The scenarios are written as stories to help the community think about what the future might look like and weave together information from interviews with people from the watershed and research on impacts to the watershed by elements such as tamarisk defoliation or prolonged drought. It is also important to note that while the future is full of may possibilities, these scenarios focus on likely and high-risk events that require extensive planning. For example, a return to average annual rainfall in the future is possible, but years of normal rainfall do not require the same amount of preparation as responding to prolonged drought. Increased precipitation within normal ranges, is therefore is not emphasized as strongly in this report, drought and intense storms that would cause flooding are discussed. Thinking about a future with extended droughts and intermittent flooding can be intimidating. It is important to remember that scenarios are not necessarily ideal visions of the future, we must try to use them to understand what we would like to see happen as well as what we would not like to see happen.